COVID-19, San Antonio, July 1, 2020

This report contains analyses based on data transmitted on Friday, June 30, by San Antonio Metro Health Department (SAMHD) and the South Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC) to the University of Texas at San Antonio. This report supersedes previous reports.

• The data shows a decline in cases starting on June 21. In principle, this could be good news. However, data since June 21st do not pass a basic statistical test (residues with respect to mean response less than two standard deviations). The drop is larger than what we believe to be possible in absence of a large event between June 5 and June 15.
• As a result of statistical rejection of data, the analysis on July 1st is inconclusive. Based on data analysis, our most reliable forecast in this moment is the projection produced on June 27
  
• A major goal of data analysis for today was to determine whether Judge Wolff’s second declaration of emergency on June 17 had an effect to reverse the trend. It might take several days before we can tell with certainty.
  

This is a project of the Biomathematics Research Group