Ayala: Nation’s most reliable predictor of COVID cases, deaths has another story to tell
San Antonio Express News, September 25, 2021. For over a year now, mathematician Juan Gutiérrez and his team at the UTSA…
Texas still has one of the nation’s worst COVID death rates, even as delta subsides
Houston Chronicle, September 23, 2021. Amid mixed messages on masks and vaccines, Texans are dying at nearly twice the rate of…
COVID transmission likely to remain steady through the end of the year
San Antonio Report, September 21, 2021. Projection models by a University of Texas at San Antonio mathematics professor suggest it could be a long COVID-y winter.
🔊 Delta And Disinformation: The COVID Surge We Chose
Petrie Dish from Texas Public Radio on NPR One, September 21, 2021 | @biomathematicus talks to 14:30 This episode of Petrie Dish talks about #disinformation & how it’s killing people & prolonging the #COVID19 #pandemic, with experts @BostonJoan at @ShorensteinCtr, @DrBarbaraTaylor at @UTHealthSA, @biomathematicus at @UTSA & @smatthewliao at @nyupublichealth.
Covid forecaster says area could see between 50,000-200,000 new cases
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, July 23, 2021: Dr, Juan Gutierrez’s Covid-19 projections have been extremely accurate since the virus began. Now, he says the greater San Antonio area should expect another 50,000-200,000 cases. “If those pediatric vaccines become available, sooner rather than later, we might be hitting the lower end…
San Antonio urgent care clinics reaching capacity due to uptick in COVID-19 cases
KSAT-TV, ABC channel 12, July 30, 2021: It’s not only major hospitals that are seeing more COVID-19 patients in San Antonio. Some local urgent care clinics are also reaching capacity.
A more contagious coronavirus variant is in San Antonio. Now what?
San Antonio Express News, February 13, 2021: Experts say the evolution of the virus raises the urgency for vaccinating the public and…
This Mathematician Projects 1.2 Million COVID-19 Deaths In US By March
Texas Public Radio, Petrie Dish with Bonnie Petrie, December 15, 2020: A San Antonio mathematician who has modeled this pandemic since the beginning says more than 1 million people could die of COVID-19 by spring.
NOTE: The reporter was notified that the 95% confidence interval was 0.5M-1.2M, with a current mean estimate of 0.6M by the end of March. The headline is inaccurate.
Covid-19 numbers could climb dramatically in San Antonio over holidays
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, November 16, 2020: It’s a potentially deadly combination – COVID-19 numbers going up just as the holidays approach. One local modeling expert says the next few months could see a significant spike in Bexar County’s numbers. “We have a huge amount of uncertainty due to the holidays,” says Dr. Juan Gutierrez…
Estadísticas y números confirman nueva ola de coronavirus.
Univision, Noviembre 16, 2020: Director de Matemáticas en UTSA Dr Juan Gutiérrez proyecta miles de casos más con motivo de días festivos.
Resurgence of the coronavirus has been slower in San Antonio. But experts warn of a ‘dark winter’ ahead.
San Antonio Express News, November 15, 2020: Increased travel, a series of holidays, cooler weather and widespread disinformation could all make the virus more difficult to contain.
Why Texas Was the First State to Surpass 1M COVID-19 Cases
Government Technology, November 12, 2020: Texas this week reached 1 million cases since the start of the pandemic, recording more infections than any other state. For reference, more people have been infected in the Lone Star State than live in Austin.
Texas was the first state in U.S. to surpass 1 million COVID-19 cases. Here’s why.
San Antonio Express News, November 11, 2020: Texas was the first state in U.S. to surpass 1 million COVID-19 cases. Here’s why… The spread of the coronavirus is being driven in part by partisanship and disinformation about the pandemic, said Juan Gutiérrez, chair of mathematics at the University of Texas at San Antonio…
Small And Rural Cities Reaching Hospital Capacity Could Cause Another COVID-19 Surge
Texas Public Radio, Petrie Dish with Bonnie Petrie, October 19, 2020: (Minute 32) COVID-19 numbers across Texas and country are now being driven by areas outside the big population centers. What might that mean for the coming months?
Is Texas high school football sustainable during coronavirus? The increasing number of canceled games is an ominous trend
Dallas Morning News, October 8, 2020: Plano Prestonwood football coach Chris Cunningham doesn’t like to give up. It’s in his makeup, he said, to fight until the point of no return, a junction… “The consistency of the increase is telling us this is a true phenomenon,” Gutierrez said…
FLUVID: Flattening The Flu Curve During A Coronavirus Pandemic
Texas Public Radio, Petrie Dish with Bonnie Petrie, September 7, 2020: (Minute 20) The worst time of the year for viruses is at our doorstep. During the winter there are surges in adenoviruses, respiratory syncytial viruses — more…
Professor specializing in COVID-19 computer models talks about a potential second wave
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, September 9, 2020: Bexar County and San Antonio are trending in the right direction when it comes to the Coronavirus, but they’re vulnerable to worsening conditions. That’s according to this week’s guest, UTSA mathematics professor and COVID-19 modeler, Dr. Juan Gutiérrez…
State of cinema: How San Antonio’s biggest local theater chain weathered a blockbuster-less summer
KENS CBS virtual channel 5 San Antonio, September 4, 2020: Several big-name movie theater brands are re-opening for business after being shut down for months because of the coronavirus pandemic…. “In relative terms, (cinemas) represent less of a risk because the volume is larger,” said Juan Gutierrez, chair of UTSA’s math department…
Herd immunity without a COVID-19 vaccine ‘a fool’s errand,’ UTSA professor says
KSAT-TV, ABC channel 12, September 1, 2020: As the chair of the UTSA Department of Mathematics who develops infectious disease models, Dr. Juan Gutierrez warns against pursuing “a fool’s errand” to achieve herd immunity, especially without a proven COVID-19 vaccine.
New study on San Antonio offers chilling worst-case scenario for COVID-19
San Antonio Express News, August 12, 2020: A new research paper focused on San Antonio offers a chilling worst-case scenario for the COVID-19 pandemic…
Maestros temen regreso a clases.
Univision, Agosto 12, 2020: El Matemático de UTSA Dr Juan Gutiérrez opina sobre el temor de los maestros.
UTSA professor urging public to stay vigilant as COVID numbers trend downward
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, August 10, 2020: Encouraging news from city leaders, they say for the past few days new COVID cases and hospitalizations have been trending downward. However, they are still encouraging the public to not let their guard down. A similar message echoed by doctors at the South Texas Medical Center. “We are going into totally uncharted territory,” said Dr. Juan B. Gutierrez, the chairman of the math department at UTSA.
2 Stylists Had Coronavirus, but Wore Masks. 139 Clients Didn’t Fall Sick.
The New York Times, July 14, 2020: A new study looks at what might have been a dangerous outbreak — had it not been for vigilant mask wearing… Face masks are an essential part of the disease-prevention tool kit, said Juan B. Gutiérrez, a mathematical biologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio…
Why R0 Is Problematic for Predicting COVID-19 Spread
The Scientist, July 13, 2020: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed the limitations of R0 as no other disease outbreak has before, at a time when policymakers need accurate forecasts. ‘R0 is a metric that is, first of all, poorly measured. And secondly, it’s informing models that result in public health action,’ says Juan B. Gutiérrez…
Nota 28 – Alertan por alza de casos de COVID-19 en Texas
Noticias 28, Monterrey, Nuevo León, México, July 13, 2020: El crecimiento exponencial de casos de #COVID19 alerta a autoridades de diversas ciudades de #Texas, entre ellas #SanAntonio. Juan B. Gutiérrez,…
COVID-19 y Regreso a Clases
Univisión, Julio 10, 2020: Matemático a cargo de las proyecciones de COVID-19 en San Antonio advierte de posible escenario en reapertura de escuelas.
The COVID-19 Surge In Texas And Its Hotspots
Texas Public Radio, Petrie Dish with Bonnie Petrie, July 3, 2020: In the last two weeks, some Texas counties implemented new face mask orders… Juan Gutierrez, chair of the mathematics department at University of Texas at San Antonio, paints a grim picture…
Celebrating San Antonio’s Drop in New COVID-19 Cases? Not So Fast, UTSA Prof Warns
San Antonio Current, July 2, 2020: After days of climbing numbers of COVID-19 infections and a staggering record jump of 1,268 cases on Tuesday, San Antonio’s number of new cases went up by just 439 on Wednesday. Finally, some good news, right? Not so fast, warns Juan B. Gutiérrez, chair of the University of Texas at San Antonio’s math department,
COVID-19 is spiking in nearby rural areas
KIII ABC 3 News, Corpus Christi, July 1, 2020: Other factors in these rising numbers are the reopening of many businesses in May and back to back holidays in the last several weeks… Dr. Juan Gutierrez with the University of Texas San Antonio said the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading across rural Texas should be a wake up call to all Texans.
UTSA math professor accurately forecast first COVID-19 peak
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, June 30, 2020: A UTSA mathematics professor who accurately forecast the first COVID-19 peak in San Antonio predicted we’d be at 12,000 cases in Bexar County tonight…
6 charts explain COVID-19 surge in San Antonio
KSAT-TV, ABC channel 12, June 30, 2020: Daily new cases, positivity rate, hospitalizations, forecast models, age of infected and other data shows the seriousness of the problem in South Texas.
1,268 casos COVID-19 en un día
Univision, June 30, 2020: San Antonio, TX está viendo un alarmante aumento de casos positivos en solo días. Expertos advierten que viene lo peor. #covid-19 #pandemia #sanantoniotexas …
‘The more we learn, the scarier it gets’: Latest UTSA models show Bexar Co. coronavirus cases could reach 200,000+ by summer’s end
KENS CBS virtual channel 5 San Antonio, June 27, 2020: The model, built and analyzed by UTSA researchers, predicts more than 200,000 cases in the county by summer’s end.
Grim forecast for Bexar County’s skyrocketing COVID-19 numbers
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, June 26, 2020: “It’s a grim outlook.” That’s the forecast for the immediate future of COVID-19 cases in Bexar County according to Dr. Juan Gutierrez. He is the UTSA math professor whose models are being used by area health leaders to plan for the future. “The model in this moment is showing a …
Models Show How Fast Coronavirus Could Spread in Texas
The Rivard Report, June 21, 2020: Texas’ coronavirus death toll could mount to somewhere between 2,500 and upward of 4,000 by mid-July, according to various forecasts.
UTSA professor says introducing herd immunity to combat COVID-19 would be ‘morally irresponsible’
KSAT ABC Channel 12, San Antonio, May 14, 2020: Dr. Juan Gutierrez said based on his research and the research of others, herd immunity is not an option for the novel coronavirus.
UTSA professor creating COVID-19 models says San Antonio in solid shape, but concern now is second wave
KSAT ABC Channel 12, San Antonio, May 13, 2020: Over the past two weeks, the state of Texas has loosened or removed its stay-at-home orders to help jumpstart the economy. That is expected to have an impact on the overall amount of COVID-19 cases in Texas. How much of an impact is now the question.
Professor behind acclaimed COVID-19 math model says relief may be in sight
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, May 11, 2020: The local professor whose widely praised COVID-19 model is being used by city leaders to help plan strategy has good news to share. “Yes, I’m optimistic, as long as we keep doing what we’re doing,” says Dr. Juan Gutierrez, chariman of UTSA’s mathematics department. “Under c…
A Texas-Size Reopening Has Many Wondering: Too Much or Not Enough?
New York Times, May 6, 2020: Texas opened a wide range of malls, restaurants and businesses just a day after the state reported its highest death toll from the coronavirus.
UTSA Models Indicate COVID-19 Cases Will Increase with Reopening
San Antonio Magazine, April 30, 2020: The number of COVID-19 cases in Bexar County is going to increase as businesses start reopening on May 1—but that doesn’t mean everything needs to remain closed. That’s the message from Juan Gutierrez, the University of Texas at San Antonio professor who is creating daily mathematical models of COVID-19 dynamics for use by local officials.
Watch Expert Forecast Coronavirus Case Hike as Lockdowns Lift
The Rivard Report, April 29, 2020: Juan Gutierrez, chair of UTSA’s mathematics department and person who led development of a local coronavirus model, spoke with the Rivard Report Wednesday.
If social distancing stops, models estimate 920K COVID-19 cases in San Antonio area by August
KSAT ABC Channel 12, San Antonio, April 24, 2020: While we look ahead to restrictions slowly being lifted to our “Stay Home, Work Safe Orders,” the UTSA professor responsible for one of the COVID-19 models in Bexar County is advising caution before re-opening schools and businesses too early.
UTSA professor behind COVID-19 model says early response ‘prevented explosion in cases’ in Bexar County
KSAT ABC Channel 12, San Antonio, April 23, 2020: The UTSA professor who is creating one of four models for COVID-19 for San Antonio and Bexar County said our early response prevented an explosion in cases in our area.
What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections
National Public Radio, April 21, 2020: As some states move to lift social distancing restrictions, government documents reveal how much more lethal the pandemic could still be without careful mitigation efforts.
Federal documents: more than 300,000 likely to die if restrictions are lifted – Center for Public Integrity
The Center for Public Integrity, April 21, 2020: Documents show how much more harrowing the coronavirus pandemic could still be without careful mitigation — and even their view is too optimistic, some experts say.
Asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus a silent threat
KENS CBS virtual channel 5 San Antonio, April 14, 2020: Unknowingly having and then transmitting the virus is one reason that there was such an explosion in global cases earlier this year.
COVID-19 professor’s model indicates nearly 1 million case if social distancing ends
WOAI NBC News Channel 4 San Antonio, April 15, 2020: The UTSA professor responsible for a model being used to predict how many COVID-19 cases Bexar County can expect cautions against what might happen if social distancing ends soon. “If we go back to business as usual, we could have as many as nearly 1 million people infected,” says UTSA…
“Silent Carriers” Are Helping Spread The Coronavirus. Here’s What We Know About Them.
BuzzFeed.News April, 2, 2020: People with no COVID-19 symptoms may be spreading the disease — but big questions remain about how much they are driving the pandemic.