COVID-19, San Antonio, June 27, 2020

This report contains analyses based on data transmitted on Friday, June 26, by San Antonio Metro Health Department (SAMHD) and the South Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC) to the University of Texas at San Antonio. This report supersedes previous reports.

• This model presents projections using data reliably measured up to June 20, 2020. These projections will evolve as the situation on the ground evolves. The current lag between modeling and data is six days for SAMHD and zero days for STRAC.
  
• The effect of Judge Wolff’s second declaration of emergency on June 17 will be measurable by June 30. Our hope is that it will reverse the trend. The following numbers could decline if the community follows directives to use facemasks, practice physical distance, and exercise frequent handwashing.
  
• The demand for hospital admissions could be over 7,000 +/- 1,000 over the next three weeks. Another 5,000 +/- 1,000 one week later. This is due to exponential growth in the number of hospitalizations at a rate of approximately 8% daily. This demand would surpass San Antonio’s hospital capacity.
  
• There could be 20,000 +/- 2,000 new community transmission cases in the next three weeks. Another 20,000 +/- 3,000 one week later. This is due to exponential growth in the number of community cases at a rate of exponential growth of approximately 7% daily.
  
• The total number of cases accumulated by the end of summer could be very large (well over 100,000 cases, up to 220,000 +/- 30,000).
  

This is a project of the Biomathematics Research Group