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COVID-19 Models

COVID-19 Models

The the Biomathematics Research Group develops projections for COVID-19 in every county in the US. We post results occasionally in this web site. This is an active area of research for which we are developing novel methods. The following estimates are the best-case and worst-case scenarios. The timeline does not account for neither non-pharmaceutical interventions nor vaccinations, which tend to slow down spread. These estimates simply inform the lower and upper limit of what we expect.

Model for the City of San Antonio, TX

This project is a partnership between government and academia for building mathematical models of COVID-19 based on data transmitted by San Antonio Metro Health Department (SAMHD) and the South Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC) to the University of Texas at San Antonio.

Every single forecast is done “under current conditions”, that is, where would we go if we kept the course at the time of the forecast. However, we change what we do, therefore the forecast evolves. Under total lock-down, we predicted accurately in March (without much data) the number we had in May. Likewise, with more data, we predicted by mid-June, when we had 6,000 cases, the 12,000+ cases observed on June 30.

This is a project of the Biomathematics Research Group